Policy Catalysts + Improve Supply-Demand Dynamics Drive Marginal Improvement muIndasitiri yePVC
Nekufamba kwenguva, indasitiri yePVC yeChina inotsigirwa neakasimba masikirwo ekuona kwakanaka. Chekutanga, kuenderera mberi kwekuita zve "anti-involution" mitemo, kusanganisira kusiyanisa mitengo yemagetsi uye kubviswa kwekuderedzwa kwemitero yekunze, kuchakurumidzisa kubviswa kwesimba risingashande. Chechipiri, kukura kutsva kwePVC kwepasi rose kucharamba kuri pakati nepakati mumakore anotevera, zvichiita kuti zvishoma nezvishoma zvivandudzwe mukupihwa-kuyerwa kwezvinodiwa. Chechitatu, kukwikwidza kwepasirese kweChina PVC indasitiri kuri kuramba kuchikwira, iine nzvimbo yakakura yekuwedzera mumisika yekunze.
Tichifunga nezvekuwedzera kudzamisa mitemo yemunyika "anti-involution", kubva muna Ndira 24 kusvika 31, 2026, boka rekutsvagisa reGuo Tai Futures rakashanyira Shaanxi, Ningxia neInner Mongolia-nzvimbo nhatu huru dzePVC{5}kuChina. Chinangwa chaive chekuongorora kukanganiswa kwemitemo yakakosha yakadai semitengo yemagetsi akasiyana uye kubviswa kwekuderedzwa kwemitero yekunze kuindasitiri yePVC, uye kuona mafambiro ekuderedza huwandu, mamiriro ekushanda kwemakambani, uye{7}}panzvimbo yekutenga{8}}kuda zvinhu chaizvo.Nzvimbo dzakaongororwa dzinoita 7.45 miriyoni tonnes{VC1 yemotokari yecalcium, inomiririra matani ecalcium1} 25.55% yePVC yakazara yeChina uye 36% ye national calcium carbide{{14}inobva paPVC capacity. Ivo zvakare vanogamuchira 22.89 miriyoni matani ecalcium carbide, inoverengera 60.88% yeChina yakazara calcium carbide huwandu. Uyezve, matunhu aya inzvimbo dzekutyaira dzekusiyanisa mitengo yemagetsi, zvichiita kuti sampuli yekutsvagisa inomiririra zvakanyanya indasitiri.
Tsvagiridzo iyi yakanangana nemirairo mikuru miviri: kusiyanisa mitengo yemagetsi uye kubviswa kwePVC mutero wekutengesa kunze kwenyika. Sematanho akakosha pasi pe "anti-involution" policy framework, ese ari maviri akakanganisa zvakanyanya pamitengo, mamiriro ekunze uye musanganiswa wehuwandu hweindasitiri yePVC.
Panyaya yekusiyana kwemitengo yemagetsi, Dhipatimendi reIndasitiri neRuzivo rweTekinoroji yePurovhinzi yeShaanxi rakapa gwaro rekubvunzana muna Zvita 2025, richironga kuisa zviri pamutemo mitengo yemagetsi yakasiyana kutanga musi waChikunguru 1, inobata maindasitiri ane simba manomwe-anosanganisira calcium carbide nePVC. Local PVC uye calcium carbide capacity muShaanxi inotora 7.18% uye 9% yehuwandu hwenyika zvakateerana, uye mutemo uchasimudza zvakananga kukwira kwecalcium carbide kugadzira cost.Sekuenderana neongororo, mutemo uyu unokwanisa zvikuru kushandiswa uye unoisa hwaro hwekuburitswa kwenyika. Kana yaitwa, mitengo yekugadzira PVC muShaanxi inotarisirwa kukwira ne70 yuan patani, yakaderera pane yekufungidzira. Mabhizinesi anogona kuvharidzira kushanda kwemarasha{10}kutsiviwa kwemagetsi uye kutenga kunze{11}kudhura kwecalcium carbide kubva kuInner Mongolia, zvichiita kuti vagadzirisi vePVC vatadze kushanda. kusimudzira-zvimhingamipinyi zvakanangana nemitengo yeindasitiri.
Musi wa9 Ndira, Ministry of Finance uye State Taxation Administration vakabatana vakaburitsa iyoChiziviso pamusoro peKugadzirisa Kutengesa Mutero Rebate Policies ye Photovoltaic uye Zvimwe Zvigadzirwa, iyo inonyatso sanganisira PVC resin, unplasticized PVC uye plasticized PVC mukugadzirisa scope. Iyi mutemo yakatanga nguva pfupi-izwi re "rush export" chiitiko chipfupi munyika. Parizvino, vatengesi vakawanda vePVC vakatengesa-maodha kare kusvika muna Kukadzi, mamwe makambani ari kutoderedza kutengeserana kwemukati menyika kuti aenderere mberi nekutengesa kune dzimwe nyika, zvichitsigira huwandu hwezvinobuda. Zvichikanganiswa nehurongwa hwekutumira, PVC kunze kwenyika inotarisirwa kupera simba kutanga kwaKurume. Yakabatana nemwaka wekunaya kwemvura muSoutheast neSouth Asia, kutengesa kunze kwenyika kuchapinda munguva yekuchinja inogadziriswa mushure meKubvumbi, nekuderera kunoramba kuchienderera kusvika muna Chikunguru.Kubva pakuona kweindasitiri, kubviswa kwemitero yekubvisa kunze kwenyika kunotarisirwa kukwidza mitengo yePVC yepasi rose uye kukonzeresa kutengeserana kwedunhu munguva pfupi. Nekudaro, nekufamba kwenguva, zvichipihwa mutengo wakakurumbira weChina uye kugona kugona, mutemo uyu unosimudzira kuwedzera kwekuvhara kunze kwenyika uye kusiyanisa zvigadzirwa. Zvichakadaro, kukanganiswa kwevagadziri vePVC mudzimba{{9}vagadziri vePVC vashoma, ukuwo{10}}mabhizinesi anodhura zvakanyanya muHenan, Shandong nemamwe matunhu anogona kutarisana nekumanikidzwa kwemvumo.
Panyaya yemashandiro emakambani, mabhizinesi ePVC muShaanxi, Ningxia neInner Mongolia anowanzo chengetedza kuyerera kwemari kune hutano pasina kurasikirwa kwakanyorwa. Pakati pe-kusvika{2}}mukupera kwaZvita 2025 mamwe makambani akarasikirwa kwenguva pfupi nekubuda kwemari nekuda kwekudzikira kwakanyanyisa kwemitengo yePVC necaustic soda. Panguva iyoyo, kutengeserana nemitengo yakaderera-PVC iri pasi pe4,000 yuan/tonne uye liquid caustic soda iri pasi pe2,000 yuan/tonne{10}yakanga iri shoma, uye makambani akadaira nekubatisisa mitengo uye kuderedza kusaina maodha. Munguva yeongororo, mutengo wePVC0/bounded pamusoro pe5, SG-5, SG-5 mitengo ye caustic soda yakaramba iri pakati pe2,100–2,300 yuan/tonne, zvichidzosa pundutso yeindasitiri kune yakaringana.
Nezve kubvumidzwa kwehunyanzvi, indasitiri inoratidza mutsauko wedunhu. Tichivimba nezvakanakira mumarasha uye zviwanikwa zvemagetsi, dunhu rekuchamhembe kwakadziva kumadokero rave mutengo wenyika wekugadzira PVC. Mabhizinesi ese akaongororwa aitenda kuti dunhu rino harizove rekutanga kuona kuderedza simba. Calcium carbide{3}vagadziri vePVC muHenan, Shandong nemamwe matunhu, vakaremerwa nemitengo yakakwira, vanogona kunge vari pakati pevazhinji vekutanga vanogona kubviswa. Nerudzi rwebhizinesi, nyika{5}vane vega vePVC vanotarisana nezvipingamupinyi zvega{6}vagadziri vega kuderera kwemutengo wemari, uye kudzvanyirirwa kwezvivakwa kune-zvigadzirwa; vamwe vanotamburawo neutera hwekutengesa kunze. Kusiyana neizvi, makambani akazvimirira anochengetedza kushanda kuri nani uye maonero ane tarisiro pamusika, achitsigirwa nemubatanidzwa wakazara weindasitiri, zvakanakira mutengo wezvimisikidzo zvemagetsi zvega -zvazvo, uye mitengo inochinjika uye nzira dzekutengesa.
Mabhizinesi masere ePVC anowanikwa muongororo iyi anosanganisira-enyika, akazvimirira uye epakati penyika-mabhizinesi ehurumende (CSOEs), ane mashandiro akasiyana pakati pawo. Mabhizinesi akazvimirira kazhinji ane tarisiro pamusoro pemusika weramangwana nekuda kwekudzora mutengo uye mashandiro anochinja. Kunyange zvazvo mamwe mitsara yezvigadzirwa zvemaCSOE ari kushanda pasina kusimba, anochengetedza mashandiro akatsiga aine zvakanakira zvizere-marongerwo echigadzirwa uye mafambisirwo emari, vachiva netarisiro yekuchenjerera kumusika.
Tichibatanidza zvinokanganisa mitemo, mashandiro emakambani uye-mamiriro emusika wepanzvimbo, musika wePVC unotarisirwa kuratidza "yepamusoro pamberi peMutambo weChirimo, wakaderera mushure mezororo" munguva pfupi. Nekufamba kwenguva, ichaona kuvandudzwa kwemiganhu kuchitsigirwa nevatyairi vemitemo inokonzeresa uye nekuvandudzwa kwekushandisa-kudiwa kwemasimba.
Musika wePVC wakaona "musika mudiki wechirimo" pamberi peMutambo weChirimo, uchifambiswa nezvinhu zvina zvakakosha: Chekutanga, kukwira kwemitengo ye calcium carbide kwakapa rutsigiro rwemutengo. Chechipiri, zvese zvePVC zvigadzirwa pakati pevagadziri vepamba zvakaramba zvakaderera, nekutanga{1}}kutengesa kutenderera kwemavhiki 2-4. Kubuda pamberi peMutambo weChirimo wakada kutengeswa zvakazara, zvichiisa makambani munzvimbo yakasimba munhaurirano dzemitengo.Chechitatu, "kuchimbidza kutengesa kunze kwenyika" pamberi pekubviswa kwemitengo yemitengo yekunze yakaenderera mberi ichisimbisa mitengo.Yechina, mitengo yakaderera yesoda yakabatsira rutivi rwemutengo wePVC kugadzirwa.
Mushure meMutambo weChirimo, zvisinei, musika uchasangana nematambudziko akawanda. Kune rimwe divi, zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika zvichadzikira zvichitevera kupera kwe "rush export" hwindo. Nekune rumwe rutivi, zvinotarisirwa zvekudzikisira zvinhu zvemumba uye kudzikisira kudiwa kwemba, zvakasanganiswa nekubviswa kwemitero yekunze, inoyera mitengo.
Nekufamba kwenguva, indasitiri yePVC yekuChina inochengetedza zvinhu zvakakosha zvakakosha. Chekutanga, kuenderera mberi kwemitemo ye "anti-involution", kusanganisira kusiyana kwemitengo yemagetsi uye kubviswa kwekuderedzwa kwemutero wekunze kwenyika, kuchawedzera kubviswa kwesimba risingashande, kusimudzira chimiro cheindasitiri, uye kuwedzera chikamu chemusika chepamusoro{-} kusvika 895,000 tonnes, nepo hutsva hwepasi rose huchangova 705,000 tonnes, zvichiratidza kutanga kwekupa chibvumirano. Kuwedzerwa kwehuwandu hwePVC pasi rose uye nekukasira kubvisiswa kwesimba risingashande mumakore anotevera kuchaita kuti zvinhu zvivandudzwe zvishoma nezvishoma-zvinoda mwero. Chechitatu, indasitiri yePVC yekuChina inozvidadisa nekudhura kwakajeka uye kugona. Pakati pekumanikidzwa mhiri kwemakungwa, kukwikwidza kwepasirese kweChina PVC indasitiri iri kuramba ichisimba, ichipa mukana wakawanda wekutengesa kunze.
Pakati pese, zvakavandudzwa zvekushandisa{{0}zvinoda simba uye "anti-involution" zvinokonzeresa zvinopa rutsigiro ruviri kuindasitiri yePVC, zvichisimbisa{2}}maitiro ayo akanaka kwenguva refu.